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Archive for the ‘World News’ Category

On November 18, 2008 I gave a presentation to the local chapter of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) at the Multnomah Athletic Club here in Portland, Oregon regarding the overall state of the financial markets.  The talk focused on how we arrived where we are and what to look for going forward.  Also included were what I believe to be the six most important regulatory reforms– all of which could be implemented immediately– that would collectively turn around the economy.

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VIEW EXCERPTS FROM AAII PRESENTATION

These could all be passed and implemented in one week, the only missing ingredient being desire.  It is somewhat astonishing how the current solution is focused on providing trillions of taxpayer dollars to various failed institutions when, if the objective is increased market confidence, these measures can be implemented with little or no cost.  They are:

1)  Requirement that hedge and private equity firms register with the SEC and disclose their top 25 holdings, top 25 sources of funding  and key accounting policies on a quarterly basis.

2)  Expanded oversight of bond rating agencies and requirement that Warren Buffett and other investors who do significant business with these rating agencies divest themselves of equity positions in the same rating agencies.  Buffett is currently Moody’s largest shareholder.

3)  Provide the SEC with oversight of public pensions, now the nation’s largest investment pools.  They currently have no jurisdiction or oversight over such funds, which is simply astonishing given their growth and related impact on the market.

4)  Expanded oversight of proxy firms and development of new competitors in this crucial area.  Currently one firm, Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS), has a monopoly over the market.  ISS is owned by Risk Metrics, a company that recently went public, whose primary owners are unregulated hedge funds.  It is unthinkable that unregulated hedge funds would hold the levers over the most important entity with respect to corporate governance, the entity that votes key corporate resolutions for many leading fund managers regarding mergers, executive compensation, etc.

5) Stock option accounting must be standardized and based upon values captured when such options are exercised rather than using arcane math formulas and related assumptions.  This is simple but has been bitterly fought against by the technology industry, most notably John Chambers of Cisco Systems.  Microsoft has provided the leadership when it terminated its stock option program in 2003, it now provides restricted stock that vests 20 percent each year and whose cost is fully accounted for.

6)  Reform the tax code to prohibit net operating losses (nol’s) from being aggregated and used to purchase profitable companies and avoid taxation.  Such losses should be amortized over 15 years, as is the case when profitable companies purchase other companies with operating losses.  Such amortization was created when a loophole was closed in the 1980′s due to a public outcry, the closure was led by then Republican Senate Finance Chairman Bob Packwood of Oregon.  Packwood and others never conceived that the loophole would be worked in reverse to escape the reform, that is someone aggregating losses and rolling in profitable companies.  Closing this loophole will slow down mergers that make no economic sense and preserve millions of jobs that would otherwise be lost for no sound economic reason other than a few managers leveraging growth in their stock options for short term gain.

Summary:  These are all administrative rules that can be changed next week.  Again, the only missing ingredient is desire.  Please pass this along to any policy makers who might be interested. A VIDEO with excerpts from the talk to the AAII can also be accessed on YouTube by selecting the picture link above, or by searching for “Parish Speaking.”

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This week Bloomberg disclosed that Warren Buffett, the man who has called derivatives a weapon of mass destruction, has himself afterall leveraged his fund Berkshire Hathaway by making a $40 billion bet in derivatives.

Little known to most investors is that Buffett’s primary source of revenue is his 50 insurance companies, including General RE, his company in which top executives are going to jail for accounting fraud associated with transactions involving AIG. The derivaties revelation was accompanied by a sharp drop in the fund price and the downgrading of Berkshire Hathaway bonds.

It is probably also time that Buffett divest himself of Moody’s, he is the bond rating company’s largest shareholder.  Moody’s played the key role in the subprime mortgage debacle and later claimed that it mistakenly overrated subprime debt due to a computer error.

It has been a tough month for Buffett in which the old expression “walk the walk” comes to mind.

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On Friday President Elect Obama designated Tim Geithner to be the next Treasury Secretary and the stock market rose roughly 5 percent in minutes.  Clearly, this was former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker’s choice and once again demonstrates Volcker’s influence as a beacon of integrity and competence.  It also highlights Obama’s good judgement by seeking out and relying on the best advice, i.e. Volcker.

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Geithner, top right, is a brilliant choice for many reasons, including the notion that he is a career public servant rather than just another investment banker seeking to expand their Rolodex prior to returning to Wall Street,

Equally important was the decision to safely distance Larry Summers, designated to lead the Council of Economic Advisors,  from the key operational decisions that require the competence and grounding of someone like Geithner.  Also critical was to exclude former Treasury Secretary Rubin, known as the Godfather of hedge funds within the industry.

Yet to be made is the critical decision regarding who will be the next Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), a role only second in importance to the Treasury Secretary.  What is clearly needed is an aggressive regulator focused upon restoring investor confidence.

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One century ago Republican Theodore Roosevelt was elected president and instituted sweeping changes in government, including the establishment of an estate tax and the national park system.  What followed was an economic boom that lasted for years. Roosevelt knew the importance of circulating wealth in order to revitalize the economy by investing in key infrastructure, including the public education system.

Today fierce battle lines are drawn over whether or not the estate tax should be repealed.  On one side are Bill Gates Jr., Grover Norquist and the Wall Mart heirs and on the other side are Bill Gates Sr. and Chuck Collins.  This is certainly not a case of “like father like son.”

While Bill Gates Sr. has co-penned a book with Chuck Collins calling for increased exemptions but not abolishment of the estate tax, Bill Gates Jr. has been the prime funder of Grover Norquist as Norquist tours the country relentlessly advocating a complete repeal of the tax.  Like Bill Gates Sr., I believe the exemption should be raised to $5 million yet do not support a repeal.

I met Grover Norquist, the nation’s most ardent anti-tax advocate, here in Portland some years ago and was amazed at his persuasive skills, and also his ability to bend facts. When I asked Norquist what he would think if I told him Microsoft made more than $10 billion in one year without paying a penny of federal income tax he replied, good for them.

Norquist seems oblivious to the growing acknowledgment that tax equity or fairness is essential to healthy capitalism.  Even the Howard Jarvis tax institute, founded by his mentor, publicly stated that there were serious fairness issues related to Microsoft’s scheme.

Also participating in the debate is Warren Buffet, who like Bill Gates Sr. opposes any repeal of the estate tax, saying:

“We have come closer to a true meritocracy than anywhere else
around the world.  You have mobility so people with talents can be
put to the best use.  Without the estate tax, you in effect will have
an aristocracy of wealth, which means you pass down the ability to
command the resources of the nation based on heredity rather than merit.”                                                     [NYT, 2/14/01]

But Warren Buffet, like the younger Gates, has also been able to sell vast holdings within the structure of his foundation, thereby avoiding all taxes.  The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has sold all of its Microsoft shares, not even keeping 10% out of loyalty to the company’s employees.  Of course not a penny of tax was paid on any of these sales and today the Gates Foundation aggressively invests in activities ranging from private equity to currency speculations with all gains completely shielded from any tax consequence.

One simple reform to the system would be to allow tax exempt income status to foundations and endowments only for that portion of their investments invested in US government securities.  All other investments would be taxed at normal capital gain rates.  Perhaps this would help to stabilize the markets and eliminate the excessive risk-taking and speculation many of these tax exempt entities are engaged in, knowing they would have no tax liability on gains.

As the policy debates rage on regarding changes to the tax law, let’s hope that overall fairness has a strong seat at the table, whatever the outcome.

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For several years now I have recommended adding short term Canadian Treasury notes to client portfolios, beginning when the Canadian dollar was roughly 62 cents to the US dollar.  The last of these positions mature in 2008, including those that already matured in July and another group set to mature in December.

Earlier this year the Canadian dollar peaked at 102 and today it sits at 82, implying a decline of 20 percent.  The Australian dollar has by comparison dropped more than 30 percent and the euro has declined 18 percent.  For quality foreign fixed income diversification I have prefered Canada with the notion that Australia is riding a commodity boom yet poorly manages its national finances and the euro is simply being sustained from new countries being added to the euro trading zone.

The question becomes, why the drop in the Canadian dollar when Canada is in a stellar financial postition compared to the US and what does this say about the US stock market.

Canada has consistently run budget surpluses and maintained a strong financial house.  This drop could indeed be rooted in investment funds cashing in these Canadian bonds in order to meet redemptions.  Since highly liquid they are easy to sell.

If indeed funds are selling a high quality sound government security like Canadian Treasuries, a country with much stronger financial footing than the United States, it would also seem apparent that the challenges facing banks and other globally diversified investors could be much greater than anticipated.  This could be particularly true of hedge and private equity funds given the likelihood that large parts of their portfolios are not liquid at the time being.  Current regulations do not require such funds to file reports with the SEC detailing their holdings and their current market values.

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Today is Columbus day, a day that celebrates Columbus discovering America.  Perhaps it is ironic that over the weekend America discovered Europe when it comes to guidance in dealing with our financial crisis.  The answer to the crisis is not to have the Treasury purchase vast amounts of worthless securities from troubled banks but rather to invest in non-dilluting bank stock to help weakened banks re-capitalize.

Thus far it appears that Paulson is still lost at sea because he is advocating purchasing preferred shares, which if done, need to pay interest, be convertible to common and also non-dilluting.  Non-dilluting means that if top execs issue more shares and the govt takes a 25 percent stake, the govt gets 25 percent of all new shares.  Absent this the stock market will clearly plunge again due to becoming overcome with exhaustion at the abject incompetence of Treasury Secretary Paulson.

Secretary Paulson and Christopher Columbus

Secretary Paulson and Christopher Columbus

Treasury Secretary Paulson has handled this crisis about as well as Michael Brown handled the Katrina hurricane in New Orleans.

Paulson began with the audacity of proposing a $700 billion bailout for his wall street pals with the stipulation that none of the $700 billion spent by the Treasury would be subject to any oversight or could be challenged in a court of law.

He then supported allowing his former firm Goldman Sachs to convert to a traditional bank with FDIC insured deposits, positioning it to unload worthless securities on the Treasury and then go out and prey on weakened regional banks.  Goldman Sachs, a key architect of this debacle, should be allowed to fail, that is simply how the market should work.

Even worse, Paulson then designated a 35 year old Goldman Sachs associate, Neil Kashkari. a trained mechanical engineer with little real banking experience, to be in charge of the program.  Paulson doesn’t seem to even now realize that it was indeed “financial engineering”  that got us into this mess. Products should be engineered, not finance.  Reading about this person’s engineering experience working with satellites is interesting and perhaps that is where he should be, not at the Treasury.

Neel Kashkari, the U.S. Treasury’s interim assistant secretary for financial stability.

Simply put, Paulson has attempted to make the Treasury department into the equivalent of a financially engineered speculative hedge fund able to engage in a vast amount of money laundering for his Wall Street associates at hedge and private equity firms.

Paulson still refuses to openly advocate that hedge funds and private equity firms register with the SEC and dislcose their top 25 holdings and investors on a quarterly basis.  Given that these firms primary source of funding is tax exempt organizations such as college endowments and public pensions, the government via the IRS tax exemption status clearly has the authority to demand such disclosure.

One guy Paulson should be listening to is Paul Krugman who just this week was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics. Krugman has been a strong critic of the current administrations economic policies.  Although an excellent economist, even Krugman still doesn’t quite see the critical need for hedge and private equity firms to register with the SEC.  People are listening Paul and you are reading this blog and so please write the column :-)

Footnote: The day following this post Paul Krugman wrote the following column in the NY Times. Although a fine piece, once again there was no mention of hedge funds registering with the SEC.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/13/opinion/13krugman.html

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Note: Also see Lone Star Part II, which has link to youtube video of Grayken’s comments before the OIC.

Today Oregon PERS investment arm, the Oregon Investment Council, met and awarded more than $1 billion in investment management contracts at its monthly meeting, including approving $600 million for Dallas based Lone Star and another $400 million for Boston based Grove Street Advisors. Also scheduled but postponed until February due to founder David Bonderman’s illness was another proposed $775 million investment in private equity firm, the Texas Pacific Group.

Lone Star CEO and Founder John Grayken is pictured below making his proposal for Lone Star, after having just returned from testifying at his firms trial over market manipulation in South Korea regarding the Korea Exchange Bank. This is somewhat ironic because in his proposal to the OIC Grayken noted that when his firm buys distressed securities portfolios, they “often get the underlying bank for free.” In the Korean bank’s case they plan to sell the bank to HSBC for $6 billion, if approved by regulators there.

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Grayken’s firm is now positioning itself to purchase distressed debt and aggressively foreclose on both residential and commercial real estate properties here in the U.S. “The race is on to play this situation,” he said. Grayken also noted that his firm was not hurt by the subprime meltdown because they only originated the loans, having purchased a “large subprime originator in San Diego.”

Grayken added that this is as good a market we’ve seen for making lots of money in years and the “key is liquidating collateral.” What this means is that their primary strategy is to aggressively foreclose on both residential and commercial property.

Meanwhile, the Oregon legislature is considering meeting to discuss how to deal with the home foreclosure crisis and is making no connection with the PERS investment. A related article by Pulitzer Prize winner Nigel Jaquiss follows.

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OIC Council members were so taken by Grayken’s proposal that they increased the proposed approved investment from a planned $400 million to $600 million.

Also on the meeting’s agenda was the proposed divestiture of companies doing business in Iran. Some might ask, why is it so easy for Oregon PERS to debate corporate governance initiatives involving distant nations while in fact much more important governance issues, including the mortgage crisis, develop unchecked in it’s own back yard?

On Saturday the Oregonian printed a story by Ted Sickinger highlighting that Oregon PERS lost $5 billion in January due to the stock market decline. This did not include potential losses in its large private equity portfolio due to the holdings becoming less liquid due to the 0verall market decline and now junk status of many bonds that. Here is an exerpt from the story.

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I continue to believe that it is a mistake for Oregon PERS to have 70 percent of its assets in stocks, private equity and real estate and only 30 percent in fixed income. In fact, my clients are now positioned the exact opposite with a maximum of 30 percent in equities and related investments. Foreign fixed income is also a key focus of my client portfolios.

Perhaps this aggressive allocation once again highlights why these council positions should be paid, involve people with investment management experience and higher standards regarding potential conflicts of interest. The current OIC Chair Dick Solomon’s presence on the council and ascendance to Chair was championed by Oregon’s most prominent lobbyist and close political ally of Governor Ted Kulongowski, Len Bergstein. Solomon is pictured below.

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During the last 18 months I have made two trips to Russia, the first in August of 2006 and the second in June of 2007, spending a total of 6 weeks there. Now fluent in Russian, it was simply astonishing to note the level of progress Russia made during this brief period. Simple things ranging from painting crosswalk markings on key streets for pedestrians, passing laws making dog owners responsible for their pets, a marked reduction in public drunkenness and overall improved security.

Clearly, glaring problems do still exist, especially in rural areas, yet it is not hard to see why Putin has been so popular. In addition there is a vast untapped pool of workers in the 30-50 year old range who are seriously underemployed. Younger Russians are however now very optimistic regarding their future.

The task for Russia’s new leader will be to push prosperity out of St. Petersburg and Moscow into rural areas, in particular by providing tax free industrial development zones to stimulate necessary job creation, etc. A hefty sales tax on luxury goods might also be popular given the dramatic disperity between ordinary workers and high net worth Russians.  It is rather shocking to see the level of new arrogance and extreme insensitivity many wealthy Russians now display toward their fellow less economically fortunate citizens.

putin and medevez

Now that Putin has designated 42 year old Gazprom Chairman Dmitry Medvedev to success him, it would also seem natural for him to return to St. Petersburg and lead the organization that is economically defining Russia’s future, Gazprom. My guess is that part of this role will be to initiate the sale of energy in rubles with the goal of making the ruble one of the global economy’s key reserve currencies. A proposterous idea a few years ago could indeed be an upcoming reality.

For the United States it is about time that we realize Russia should be a key ally and cease the current sword rattling, even though we still have a significant philisophical divide to negotiate.

The investment community in particular needs to get over the nationalization of Yukos and the complete loss to investors. Ironically, that loss could turn out to be a great investment in that it will spawn many more investment opportunities resulting from a stronger and more secure Russia resulting from plowing the nationalized Yukos assets and energy wealth back into the country to fund government services and necessary infrastructure.

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Here in the United States the two most important proxy firms are Institutional Shareholder Services, which is owned by hedge funds, and Glass Lewis, previously owned by a Shanghai Bank.

The recent purchase of Glass Lewis by the Ontario Teachers Pension Fund is a terrific development in the world of corporate governance because it will clearly lead to more transparency regarding key issues, especially mergers. Proxy firms are effectively corporate America’s Congress, both the House and Senate, given that these firms issues key opinions on mergers and other important governance issues. It is most surprising that the Securities and Exchange Commission, Federal Reserve and Congress in the US have not paid more attention to ISS and Glass Lewis and their impact on the financial markets.

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In a major victory for the Linux operating system, Russia has mandated that all Russian schools will be using open source software by 2009. Open source is indeed a great learning environment and it is unfortunate that students here in the US continue to have their educations dumbed down by being forced to use Windows based products.

Already Russia is again emerging as an economic superpower due to energy resources, see post regarding move to sell energy in rubles, and this move to Linux will clearly now position them to surpass the U.S. in software development.

With Microsoft’s largest customer now the Pentagon and its foundation openly violating rules governing non-profit organizations by using itself as a conduit for installing donated Microsoft products in schools and libraries around the country and creating a dependancy on these products, one has to wonder how Microsoft would fare in a truly competitive environment. Today it is succeeding on government contracts as smart organizations rapidly adopt open source, not only for cost reasons yet more importantly the capacity to innovate more quickly with new products and services.

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